Two-Man Roundtable: Encore Open Thread Edition
Will Pryor spend the night running for his life as Troy Smith and Todd Boeckman did?
Poe: No, probably more like Craig Krenzel. Expect more than a few QB draws, especially if Pryor can show some accuracy early and beat Texas with the pass. Terrelle Pryor needs to show decisiveness in his passing and his rushing, and he should be fine. Also, hopefully Tressel and & Co has learned that 5-yard outlet passes are okay. That means TE’s, FB’s, RB’s, whatever. Not every pass has to go to a receiver 15 yards down field.
Now if you’re wondering if the line will hold up, that’s a big “God, I hope so.” There’s a good possibility that the line is just lazy. This is a big game for the line and they know it. It’s a chance to prove that they are at least adequate. They have one good game left in them and they are saving it for tonight. The offensive line has had time to practice, get healthy, and get mad. They are going to lay it on the line, if not for the freshman QB, for the junior tailback. They will also have to lay it on the line for Coach Bollman, so expect him to be in their ears all night.
Massey: You will have to excuse my pessimism when it comes to the offensive line. I cannot say that I have seen them play well against a good team all year. The Trojans went through them like a sieve and Penn State’s front four looked like the Minnesota Vikings.
The Buckeyes’ best chance of avoiding another bowl blocking meltdown is to consistently roll Pryor away from Orapko’s side. I know Texas has other good defensive lineman but why tempt fate? That may limit Pryor field of vision but it will also allow him to keep the defense from committing to the run or pass. Of course, Pryor can do the line some favors by getting rid of the ball more quickly on bad plays.
Will the 2-QB plays produce any quality results, or simply cause the team to be confused?
M: This plot seems as much an act of gratitude to Boeckman for his loyal service as it does a substantive, strategic move.
I am not a fan of trick plays (unless they work) and those are the only types of plays I can see the Buckeyes running with Boeckman and Pryor in the game. At best, they will run a halfback pass with Pryor playing the halfback. They are not going run toss sweeps to Terrelle when they Beanie and they are not going to run him downfield on a post route. One intriguing thought that came to mind was lining Pryor up at tight end and having him drag across the middle. Of course, the next thought I had was Terrelle getting laid out by Sergio Kindle and being injured. The thought quickly went from intriguing to terrifying at that moment.
I advocated for this at the beginning of the year and I still maintain that Pryor as place holder on field goals would be devastating. Every opponent would have to play the fake each time. At the very least, it would allow Ryan “Line Drive” Pretorious a little extra room.
P: Ohio State could do some interesting things with Pryor and Boeckman. Don’t expect the unexpected, however, and I doubt the 2-QB system will be staple of the offense. Trick plays never seem to work out well for the Buckeyes, but it’s been more than a month since their last game. I think the Pryor/Boeckman experience could work, especially if it’s a toss up to Pryor in the end zone or an attention grabber for something else. Ohio State likes its bread and butter, so don’t expect this to be Florida or Illinois.
The 2007 National Championship game was supposed to feature Antonio Henton as a “change of pace” (read: mobile) QB, but let’s face it, Tressel didn’t trust Henton near the amount he trusts Boeckman and Pryor. What it all comes down to is confusing the defense. Tressel hasn’t played the confusion card, ever. It’s normally run left, run right, pass, etc. If he throws in the Pryor/Boeckman, it’s because he doesn’t think we can beat them straight up. He might be right.
Speaking of the game, who wins?
P: Texas has the media, fans, and spread on their side. Ohio State has the motivation and is playing for respect. I picked Ohio State over Florida, Illinois, LSU, and USC. They were all losses. Let’s try something different. I don’t think Texas will stop Beanie Wells, but I don’t think the Ohio State can stop Colt McCoy. I hope the Buckeyes prove me wrong. Give me Texas, 31-27.
M: Before I make a prediction, I need to clear something up. Is there a bird flu outbreak or sex scandal at Texas that I am not aware of? How does this line keep going down? I keep looking at the body of work we have this season and wonder how Ohio State is going to score. I have said it before, but USC and Penn State are the only teams that lived on the same level as Texas all year and OSU did very little in those games. I understand that a few Big 12 defenses (Missouri, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech) have been lit up in bowl games but there are no transitive properties in college football.
I think the Buckeyes' defense will play well and slow the Longhorns down for three quarters, but eventually Texas is going to break some big plays. A couple of late scores make it look bad.
Texas 30, Ohio State 13
It’s Party Time
What Makes Me Feel Good
Ohio State’s Run Defense v. Texas Run Offense: Don’t get me wrong, Texas has the best offense that the Buckeyes have seen all season but they are not much of a running team. The Longhorns’ rushing attack ranks 35th nationally (177 ypg), which is ten spots behind the Buckeyes. Not bad, but it is not keeping me up at night.
If there is one thing that the OSU defense has done consistently well over the years in big games, it is stop the opposing teams’ running game (with the exception of USC this season; they picked up 5.1 ypc). LSU only gained 3.1 ypc, Florida 3.6 ypc, and the Vince Young-Longhorns in 2005 only gained 2.9 per run and 150 yards below their would-be average.
So, it would seem that the Buckeyes have a bit of a head start: traditionally good run defense against a pass happy, system-based run offense. Combined with a willingness to play some man coverage (see below), the Buckeyes defensive line could allow the OSU linebackers participate in the pass rush.
Pryor Potential “Arrival” Moment: If you put me the spot, I would confess to not knowing exactly what this means. What I do know is that college football has been heavy on the poetic overtures throughout the years. How many times have you watched a an unheralded player have the game of his life against his home state’s university or against the school that did not offer him a scholarship. If you are having trouble thinking of one, check out the tape of the 2001 Outback Bowl (hint: Ryan Brewer).
Excuse me for seeming callous but I really do not think Pryor has had a great, defining game yet. He has engineered a great drive against Wisconsin and has had a handful of magical plays, but he has yet to produce like we all imagine. In fact, he has never had more than 230 yards of total offense. For a player who some believe is a potential Heisman candidate next season, he needs to blow up on a national stage. We know this game is coming, but we just do not know when. Tomorrow night is as good a time as any.
I am not saying that Pryor was snubbed by Texas or that he has a grudge against the Longhorns. Anything but. Still, poetic justice comes in many forms and I can certainly see the headlines and references on Tuesday if Pryor approximates a game like Young had in the 2005 Rose Bowl. It would be sweet to read: “Texas burned by the next Vince Young.”
What Makes Me Feel Not-So-Good
Ohio State’s lack of defensive imagination in big games: How many times have we seen it? The Buckeyes face a stacked offensive team with a litany of weapons and plays a soft cover two all game only to be picked apart. Hell, Chris Leak and co. were not totally stacked on offense and they looked the Bill Walsh 49ers. We all want more aggressive defensive schemes at least part of the time and understand that the Buckeyes are not going to blitz every down.
Beyond McCoy, Texas does not have one player that is going to shred an offense (see running game analysis above). McCoy’s unceasing accuracy and a consistent deployment of above-average skill position players is what makes them dangerous. Raise your hand if you would like to see Jenkins, Chekwa, and Washington man up on many downs in an effort to allow the front seven to get after the quarterback. Yeah, me too.
Ohio State’s Wide Receivers: Ohio State’s starting wide receivers – Brian Robiskie and Brian Hartline – are tremendously disappointing. You could claim the quarterback situation dragged them down, but good receivers elevate the play of new quarterbacks. Instead, these two combined for 113 yards against the only decent competition they saw this season, USC and Penn State. Those are the two best opponents they faced all year, easily, and those two were nowhere to be found. It is not a stretch to say that Ray Small was the best WR on the team against USC and Sanzenbacher had the best performance against PSU.
Texas faced Michael Crabtree, Dez Bryant, Jeremy Maclin, and Juaquin Iglesias this season. And, they went against Quan Crosby and Jordan Shipley every day in practice – each guy had more than twice as many catches and yards than Robiskie, OSU’s leading receiver.
Unless, the Longhorns’ secondary gets cocky and lazy, I do not see how Ohio State’s receivers are going to get separation and make plays after the catch. I really hope I am wrong, but I cannot imagine it happening.
Fiesta Bowl: Child’s Play
Every parent knows the moment when a small child hits his forehead on a doorknob, or bumps her chin on the coffee table, and then the long seconds of red-faced anticipation, breath drawn, while everyone waits for the explosion of tears. The moment lasts maybe ten seconds but feels like years, and though the inevitable explosion is, mostly, inevitable, a small part of the parent’s heart hopes that this time the child will somehow compose herself, see that her injury isn’t life-threatening, take a breath, find distraction in a bright, shiny object, and laugh.
For Ohio State fans, the metaphorical doorknob, or coffee table, has manifested itself in three distinctly different, yet equally painful forms over the past three seasons just when they seemed to be playing for everything. Looking back at those “accidents,” it is possible to pinpoint a – if not “the” – moment when the buckeyes forehead made contact.
Against Florida, the edge of the coffee table was Derrick Harvey’s two first quarter interceptions. After that, the Buckeyes promptly received a penalty and threw an interception that allowed the Gators to go up 21-7. Ohio State seemed to view that deficit as season-threatening. With no bright, shiny object in sight, bawling ensued.
Similar moments are easily found in the stigma-inducing games against LSU (Robiskie’s drop followed by the blocked FG) and USC (another missed FG). For fans everywhere, especially OSU fans, the drives following these moments feel like an eternity as everyone wants for the Buckeyes implosion by ineptitude.
As the Buckeyes prepare to face Texas, a team with a Top 10 offense and terrific return teams, I am positive that they will once again hit their head. And much like the parent, a part of my heart – albeit more than a small part – will hope that the Buckeyes find the bright, shiny object - a trophy, perhaps – to maintain their focus.
I think this Ohio State team is more resilient than a freshly dinged toddler, but if I see another missed field goal I cannot say I will be very hopeful.
Fiesta Bowl: Players to Watch, Or Not
Beanie Wells
The junior is most likely playing in his last game as a Buckeye and will want to make a statement. Wells is not happy. He’s mad he hurt his foot this season and he’s mad that his line has caved faster than the levees in New Orleans. Beanie is at his best in big games and will be calling for the football. He was the best player on the field against LSU last year, but after carrying 39 times for 222 yards against Michigan, he only got 20 carries for 146 yards. Would it have been a different game if Ohio State got up 10-0 and rushed Beanie 45 times? We’ll never know. Tressel will want to open up the offense for the Fiesta Bowl, but never expect him to deviate far from Wells.
Terrelle Pryor
Pryor arrived on campus for fall practice and assumed the starting role the 4th game of the season. Not a whole lot of time dedicated to learning and development. The most improved player between the season and bowl should be Pryor, due to his high ceiling and relatively limited experience to date. He’s been improving his footwork and throwing technique. Texas gave up a 101 yards to Baylor’s Griffin on the ground, but limited him to a loss-causing 6/19 passing. If Pryor can get his reads and hit his targets, it should be a big number day. A backfield of Pryor and Wells easily gives Ohio State the most athletic QB and RB that Texas has faced all year.
Jim Tressel
Okay, I cheated. He’s not a player. But if Ohio State is going to have a good day, Tressel is going to have a good day. He’s already confirmed that Pryor and the senior [citizen] Todd Boeckman will be in the same backfield. “We might. In fact, we will. Let me go that far. We will.” Tressel said. Will we see any other trickery? You betcha. LSU and Florida games notwithstanding, he’s generally taken chances in the bowls. A fake field goal against Miami, Ted Ginn reverse against ND, etc. He really needs to show that he scouts his own team as well as his opponents and the players need to execute. The playbook better be wide open, because Texas scores points.
Cover Your Eyes
Marcus Freeman
Hampered by injuries the latter part of the season, Marcus Freeman has no doubt used the time off to get healthier. A healthy Marcus Freeman, at least against Youngstown State, looked fast and furious. Against USC, he suffered from poor tackling and a blown coverage on USC’s fullback Stanley Havili that lead to an easy score. A taped and battered Freeman was more of a liability than a force down the stretch, including the Penn State game, missing tackles and failing to make a game changing INT. When healthy, mentally and physically, Freeman can be a force and should finally be healthy and looking to make an impact. My guess is, we won’t see a lot of Ross Homan due to the wide open nature of Texas, so it’s on Freeman to be the every down linebacker opposite JL.
Anderson Russell
Probably one of the more athletically gifted players on the Buckeye Squad, Russell often struggles to make an impact on the game from his Free Safety position. He is good at the details and can provide good zone coverage, but he’s struggled with timing and recognition against more accurate passers. Nothing stands out more than USC’s TD pass to the TE when Russell neglected to acknowledge the possibility of a pass. Buckeyes still haven’t received the official notice from the NCAA that TE’s can, in fact, catch balls. Tackling, as with Freeman, can be a concern at times, especially in space.
Bryant Browing
If Ohio State learned anything against Florida and LSU, or even Purdue, it surely hasn’t been shown by Browning. Replacing Kirk Barton was a tremendous task, even Barton can’t find a spot in the NFL, and Browning looks capable against the power rush. Speed rush? Whole ‘nother story. In the Penn State game, PSU split its defensive ends wide and used their speed to get to Pryor and Wells. While the DE’s were smoking weed and starting brawls at the QB, Browning was still standing at the line, waiting for the next play. He may want to learn a quick first step by Monday or Tressel will need to place a TE and a FB behind him if he’s lined up against Orakpo.
Big 12 Math Made Easy
Your Big 12 Average Scoring – 21 points for good defense = Bowl scoring
"You've got to stop the running game first or at least try to control it some, because we have not seen anybody that runs the ball like they do. We've got great stats against the run (No. 2 nationally), but we're in a passing league.” Mack Brown, circa last week.
Truer words have never been spoken. Oklahoma State’s Kendall Hunter, the Big 12’s leading rusher, was on display last night in the Holiday Bowl against the Oregon Ducks. In case you missed it, here’s the stat line: 13 rushes for 36 yards (2.8 ypc with a long of 13). That’s right. This is a guy that rumbled for 1500 yards at 6.7 ypc. And Oklahoma State was in it for most of the game, and without Dez Bryant.
13 rushes for 36 yards.
This is the same Kendall Hunter that rumbled for 161 yards on 18 carries and a TD against Texas. Yes, that #2 in the nation Texas Longhorns run defense. Yes, in the game that held the Longhorns to their lowest output of the season of 28 points and a point differential of 4 (28-24). Meanwhile, Oklahoma State acted like they had rarely seen a QB or HB that could (or would) run. Maybe you can discount it as a bad bowl game for OK State, but it’s not like this Oregon team is considered a stalwart against the run.
Through the Alamo Bowl (Missouri vs Northwestern) and the Holiday Bowl (Oklahoma State vs Oregon), we’ve learned the answer to the “bad defenses or good offenses” question. The Big 12 offenses AND defenses have struggled so far. Northwestern brought Big Ten physicality (yes, Northwestern) and manhandled Missouri for most of the game. Sure, these might have only been the #4 and #5 best teams in the Big 12, but what if the trend continues? They may have been the #4 and #5 teams, but they are all top ten in scoring offense. Missouri came in ranked #6 at 42.2 points per game and Oklahoma State came in ranked #8 with 41.6 points per game. Texas, you may ask, is right there at 43.9 points per game.
What does this mean for the Buckeyes? Probably not much, because Texas and Ohio State are their own teams. Colt McCoy is still scary. “The best defense Texas has seen all year” made Mark Sanchez look like Matt Leinart (USC, not the pros), not to mention previous performance that shall not be named. If I was Texas and I was watching its Big 12 brethren getting pushed around, I would be a little worried going into this game. Expect that point spread to keep dropping if this trend continues through Monday.
Penn State, The Big Ten Needs You
I won’t. I won’t do it. Why? Because the Big Ten needs you. Even Stewart Mandel agrees.
Looking at the Big Ten bowl schedule, a sane man can do nothing but shutter. After the Wisconsin beatdown, the big dogs at ESPN are all but ready to pull the “Big Ten SUX!” lever installed in Bristol soon after the 2006 National Championship. In fairness, who could blame them? Northwestern lost, albeit in overtime and due to a missed extra point against a Big 12 super offense. USC hasn’t been a kind West Coast host to the Big Ten teams fortunate enough to play them at home or in their backyard.
2006 Rose Bowl – Michigan @ USC – It was a really good game, until America realized Lloyd Carr didn’t believe in “halftime adjustments” and USC laid on the second half points.
2007 Rose Bowl – Illinois @ USC – A one dimensional team couldn’t keep up with the balanced USC attack. If Juice wasn’t Juice, it could have been different.
2008 – Ohio State @ USC – A Beanie-less, Todd Boeckman-led Ohio State team once again caved under pressure. Ohio State tried to run the clock out…after the first field goal
Penn State, it’s up to you. Bring the Spread HD, bring your 110 year old coach, bring Derrick Williams and his 3 years of under-performing. Bring it all. Words of caution: USC is bigger and faster than you. When USC tries, they win. While you are stuck in Happy Valley, they are busy taking recruits on limo rides to clubs in LA.
Keys to the Game:
PENN STATE
Darryl Clark’s Head – If he was out-manned playing Iowa and Ohio State, get ready to get Juiced. Illinois’ front man thought he’d have an easy day, and he did for all of 3 minutes. Todd Boeckman? He was a very LSU-esque 2 INTs and a requisite fumble. Chad Henne would rather play Florida every day of the week than USC again.
Ability to Not Play Big Ten Football – If you don’t want an “old fashioned Pac-10 butt whoopin”, leave the easy stuff to Michigan State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin. Run, Run, Pass isn’t going to beat USC no matter how hard the Big Ten tries. I’ve been impressed with PSU’s playcalling, even against OSU when it could only muster a touchdown. They’ve got playmakers that actually make plays.
USC
Playing at Home – Nothing like home games for all the teams facing the Big Ten teams. Los Angeles is a big city, and it’s not fun trying to get to one side from the other, but that’s all USC has to deal with. Penn State? Cross country trek to play a USC at home. Home crowd, home announcers, and more than likely, USC favoring officials.
7.8 ppg – The overpowering defense has made up for what has been a mediocre offensive attack. ESPN commentators already have 7.8 ppg tattooed on their butts (here’s looking at you, Jesse Palmer), proclaiming USC to be the best defense EVER!@#$%?. A Beanieless Ohio State mustered one whole field goal. Then again, a Beaniefull OSU only delivered 2 field goals against Penn State. While it may be overblown, the USC defense features freaks of nature on the line, in the linebacking core, and in Sean Taylor*.
*I meant Taylor Mays. Is there a difference?
Video Re-Entry
Todd McShay seems to like the Buckeyes more than most prognosticators. There is some semblance of hope provided by guys like McShay and, to a greater extent, the men at Las Vegas Sports Consultants. Listen, you all know that my optimism level was not skyrocketing when this pairing was announced, but it is preview pieces like this one that make me consider reconsidering my initial reactions.
To celebrate Northwestern's early 10-3 lead, and
Missouri's impossibly numerous defensive offsides
penalties, we bring you this masterpiece:
[HT: Poe McNoe]





